I’ve got tons of people asking me for my thoughts and predictions — such as they are which isn’t much — as we face Election Day tomorrow. Without any sense of order, decorum or priority, here I go….
1. I am absolutely baffled as to how this is going to turn out. I used to like to tell myself that I have a ‘sixth sense’ for how these things are going and I have routinely correctly predicted the outcome of elections going back to the 1980′s with a few exceptions. But this one I can’t just get my finger on. I see two very real and possible scenarios: The first one is that it REALLY IS this close. I suspect it might be this situation. If it is truly this within-a-couple-of-percentage-points horse race the polls are predicting, watch Ohio. (Unless Romney loses Virginia or Florida. If he loses one of those states, go to bed early and dream of Obamacare.) Ohio will likely decide the next President. The other scenario is that the pollsters have overly estimated the number of Democrats who will vote. (I almost said who are alive and voting, but….nevermind.) If they have, then a 4-6 point Romney win is quite likely. However, it will be potentially hard on the country. Millions of people who favor Obama will be shocked….SHOCKED. The shock will then turn to outrage. The outrage will turn to accusations of voter fraud. I’ll not describe a worst-case scenario as to what “could” happen, but it isn’t pretty.
2. If it is super close, ties usually go to the incumbents or the political party which controls the election process in that state/city. But there’s also the potential that multiple states may be too close to call until days or weeks after this Tuesday. The Democrats are not going to tolerate another Election 2000. Expect everything from prolonged recounts, to legal challenges, to street protests. It. Will Be. Ugly.
3. If it is a squeaker, expect the Dems to hold the Senate. If the spread is 5-6 points for Romney, expect a 51-49 or 50-50 (VP casts the deciding vote) Republican majority. On the House side — regardless, I think the Republicans will strengthen their majority by 3-5 seats.
4. Unless the Republicans win the White House and the Senate, expect 4 more years of deadlock. Every other plausible scenario = deadlock, except for a Republican sweep.
5. The biggest outcome to this election is not about who sits in the White House or Congress. It is about who will be appointed/approved to sit on the Supreme Court.
6. If Obama prevails tomorrow, I believe we have seen the last conservative elected to the White House. Ever. The numbers simply are not there. No matter who wins, we are a DEEPLY DIVIDED nation and that doesn’t bode well for the future.
7. By and large, I have great confidence that the majority of the American population votes on matters of style and personal pocketbook (in that order), than on philosophy and principle. Yep, that’s a cynical perspective and I own it.
8. You can like it, lump it, hate me, love me, de-friend me or ignore me, but I cannot, for the life of me, understand how an evangelical Christian, Catholic or anyone with two cents worth of compassion can vote for a party or person who is as coldly pro-abortion as the Democrat party and its leadership. Tell me I’m narrow-minded, a sheeple, a one-issue stooge, a litmus test holder and anything else — for me, THIS ONE ISSUE, impacts my vote more than any other. I will never, not ever, vote for anyone for an office that has the power to impact the Right to Life, who is not Pro-Life. Anyone who knows me, knows what my first four reasons for that position are.
9. I will miss all the political adds exactly zero.
10. The actual voting process is broken and we need to fix it. It is ridiculous to have some states voting a month in advance and others with no early voting. These long voting periods are rife with the potential for fraud, mistakes, lost ballots and more. In addition, this business of not having to register or prove identity is just wrong and ridiculous and any honest liberal should admit it. I’m constantly having to show ID to do the most mundane tasks. It is not a hardship. It’s just life. Why would we treat something as sacred as voting for our leadership less seriously than buying cold medication, a beer or get on an airplane? We need a reasonable voter identity law and let’s do a Friday/Saturday election for 36 hours. People who are out of town should get an absentee ballot just like they did for a dozen decades. Make it uniform across the country lest something happen and we lose confidence in the process.
11. While I’m at it — the Electoral College is a good idea and wee shouldn’t tinker with it. I will say that on Wednesday even if Obama loses the popular vote while winning the electoral vote. There is HUGE wisdom in it and we shouldn’t think ourselves smarter than the Founders on this. It ain’t broke. Don’t fix it.
12. I lay much of the blame of this country’s toxic political dialogue at the feet of MSNBC and FNC. It is a constant frustration for me to find some outlet that actually DOES let me decide without the shrill demagoguery of the Hannity’s and Matthew’s and O’Reilly’s and Maddow’s of this world. It is uncivil and unreasonably partisan and it is contagious. I love sarcasm, rhetorical feints and parlays and strong opinions with a side of irony. A lot. But when it impacts our ability to interact with reasonableness with our neighbors and colleagues because we parrot the same attitude in our real lives as we see demonstrated in the out-of-perspective world of those in the kleiglights of the Mainstream Media (and oh yeah, when will we stop calling NBC/ABC/CBS “mainstream”? Fox now controls almost half of the cable news audience — that makes them pretty mainstream), we need to step back, draw a few deep breaths and calm down. We’re better than this. I hope.
13. As I posted on my Facebook wall last night: “May each of us have such a spiritual mind and high view of the sovereignty of God that we have not one bit more or one bit less joy, peace or hope Wednesday than we do right now.” I really mean that. I am at perfect peace already at how this election will conclude even though I have no earthly idea what that will look like. Wednesday is going to be a great day. I’m already looking forward to it. I will not be irrationally optimistic if the candidate who was my third-to-the-last choice for President happens to win and I will not be devastated if the current administration is given another four years. It’s just politics. None of us will give one care about it in 100 years. My confidence is not in this political system or its rulers. My citizenship is in heaven. So, I’ll not let a silly political election steal one second of my joy or peace come Wednesday.
Of course, I will still have strong opinions and will voice them regularly and at times shamefully obnoxiously. I will continue to follow politics, because for me it like following my favorite sport. It’s truly interesting to me — but it does not define me and I’d make a horrible “player” if given the chance. I’m quite content sitting up in the stands with my coke and hotdog yelling at the coaches down on the field.
So until Wednesday…….
As always, the views in this post are mine and mine alone and should not reflect on anyone else from my momma to my future grandchild.